Every October, Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) becomes one of the most closely watched numbers in American personal finance. For the more than 71 million Americans who rely on retired-worker, disability, or survivor benefits, that single percentage determines how much further — or how much less far — their monthly check will stretch the following year.

Heading into 2027, that number is shaping up to be unusually large, and unusually political. Analysts are now calling it a second consecutive “Trump bump,” a COLA increase driven in meaningful part by the administration’s trade and foreign policy decisions rather than by ordinary economic conditions.