The Latest 2027 COLA Estimates

As of mid-August 2026, the two most closely watched independent Social Security forecasters have both revised their 2027 COLA projections down from their spring peaks, but they’re still pointing to a historically large increase:

• The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior advocacy organization, currently projects a 3.6% COLA for 2027.
• Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, currently projects 3.4%.

Averaging those two figures puts the expected 2027 COLA at roughly 3.5% — a number that would tie for the sixth-largest cost-of-living adjustment in the past 35 years. It would also mark the sixth consecutive year that Social Security benefits have risen by at least 2.5%, a streak not seen since the ten-year run from 1988 through 1997.

It’s worth remembering that none of these figures are official. The Social Security Administration won’t calculate and announce the actual 2027 COLA until October 2026, based on the final CPI-W readings for July, August, and September. Two more months of inflation data — including the August CPI report due September 11, 2026 — could still shift the final number up or down.

What a 3.5% Raise Would Actually Mean

As of January 2026, the average monthly Social Security benefit for a retired worker was $2,071. A COLA in the 3.4%–3.6% range would translate to roughly $70 to $75 more per month, or somewhere between $840 and $900 more per year, for the average retired worker. Beneficiaries receiving higher-than-average checks would see a proportionally larger dollar increase, since the COLA is applied as a percentage rather than a flat amount.

The Overlooked Silver Lining: Medicare Part B

Here’s where the 2027 forecast gets genuinely interesting for retirees, and where the “Trump bump” narrative takes an unexpected turn toward good news.

For more than a decade, the annual percentage increase in Medicare Part B premiums has consistently outpaced Social Security’s COLA. Because the standard Part B premium is typically deducted directly from a retiree’s monthly Social Security check, a COLA that grows more slowly than Part B effectively means many beneficiaries take home a smaller net increase than the headline COLA number suggests — or in some years, less money overall.

Consider the recent pattern:

• 2024: COLA of 3.2% vs. a Part B premium increase of 5.9%
• 2025: COLA of 2.5% vs. a Part B premium increase of 5.9%
• 2026: COLA of 2.8% vs. a Part B premium increase of 9.7%

In each of those years, Medicare’s premium growth outran the benefit increase meant to offset inflation, quietly eroding purchasing power. According to a 2024 report from TSCL, this dynamic contributed to Social Security benefits losing roughly 20% of their purchasing power between 2010 and 2024.

For 2027, the math finally looks different. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report estimates the standard Part B premium will rise by just 3.25%, to $209.50 per month. That’s meaningfully below both TSCL’s 3.6% COLA projection and Mary Johnson’s 3.4% projection. If those estimates hold, 2027 would be the first year since 2023 — when the Part B premium actually declined — that Social Security’s COLA outpaces the growth in Medicare’s Part B premium. For tens of millions of retirees enrolled in traditional Medicare, that means keeping more of their raise rather than watching it get absorbed by rising premiums before it ever reaches their bank account.

To be clear, this silver lining doesn’t reverse the purchasing power retirees have already lost over the past decade-plus. But it does represent a meaningful, if modest, shift in the right direction for the first time in several years.