
The Latest 2027 COLA Estimates
As of mid-August 2026, the two most closely watched independent Social Security forecasters have both revised their 2027 COLA projections down from their spring peaks, but they’re still pointing to a historically large increase:
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior advocacy organization, currently projects a 3.6% COLA for 2027.
- Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, currently projects 3.4%.
Averaging those two figures puts the expected 2027 COLA at roughly 3.5% — a number that would tie for the sixth-largest cost-of-living adjustment in the past 35 years. It would also mark the sixth consecutive year that Social Security benefits have risen by at least 2.5%, a streak not seen since the ten-year run from 1988 through 1997.
It’s worth remembering that none of these figures are official. The Social Security Administration won’t calculate and announce the actual 2027 COLA until October 2026, based on the final CPI-W readings for July, August, and September. Two more months of inflation data — including the August CPI report due September 11, 2026 — could still shift the final number up or down.
What a 3.5% Raise Would Actually Mean
As of January 2026, the average monthly Social Security benefit for a retired worker was $2,071. A COLA in the 3.4%–3.6% range would translate to roughly $70 to $75 more per month, or somewhere between $840 and $900 more per year, for the average retired worker. Beneficiaries receiving higher-than-average checks would see a proportionally larger dollar increase, since the COLA is applied as a percentage rather than a flat amount.
The Overlooked Silver Lining: Medicare Part B
Here’s where the 2027 forecast gets genuinely interesting for retirees, and where the “Trump bump” narrative takes an unexpected turn toward good news.
For more than a decade, the annual percentage increase in Medicare Part B premiums has consistently outpaced Social Security’s COLA. Because the standard Part B premium is typically deducted directly from a retiree’s monthly Social Security check, a COLA that grows more slowly than Part B effectively means many beneficiaries take home a smaller net increase than the headline COLA number suggests — or in some years, less money overall.
Consider the recent pattern:
- 2024: COLA of 3.2% vs. a Part B premium increase of 5.9%
- 2025: COLA of 2.5% vs. a Part B premium increase of 5.9%
- 2026: COLA of 2.8% vs. a Part B premium increase of 9.7%
In each of those years, Medicare’s premium growth outran the benefit increase meant to offset inflation, quietly eroding purchasing power. According to a 2024 report from TSCL, this dynamic contributed to Social Security benefits losing roughly 20% of their purchasing power between 2010 and 2024.
For 2027, the math finally looks different. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report estimates the standard Part B premium will rise by just 3.25%, to $209.50 per month. That’s meaningfully below both TSCL’s 3.6% COLA projection and Mary Johnson’s 3.4% projection. If those estimates hold, 2027 would be the first year since 2023 — when the Part B premium actually declined — that Social Security’s COLA outpaces the growth in Medicare’s Part B premium. For tens of millions of retirees enrolled in traditional Medicare, that means keeping more of their raise rather than watching it get absorbed by rising premiums before it ever reaches their bank account.
To be clear, this silver lining doesn’t reverse the purchasing power retirees have already lost over the past decade-plus. But it does represent a meaningful, if modest, shift in the right direction for the first time in several years.
AS the year winds down each year I look at the years INFLATION . Looking at the COL and what it takes to live OUR COL dosen’t comeout the same .COL is costing PEOPLE MORE and MORE every year . We get raises then you GO UP ON MEDI CARE and there gos our raises. Our SSI ISNOT KEEPING UP with the INFLATION when GAS and DEISEL are so high we can’t BUY IT. AND FOOD IS SO HIGH/ THE COST OF HAMBURGER is so high ESPECIALLY when its made of meat scraps and pecentage fat scraps cheepest produced meat. Hamburger meat should the 1/2 the price like $1.00 a LB. I worked in aPACKING HOUSE a longtime many YEARS . Our COLA RAISES SHOULD BE ABOUT A 5.0% TO 6.0% a YEAR TO KEEP UP . I know theirs alot of bills to pay but the people WORKED FORIT. I ALWAYS VOTE REPUBLICAN .TRUMP IS THE BEST . GOD BLESS AMERICA and keepTHE US FREE
illegals pay taxes but aren’t eligible for benefits! Read up on the Social Security laws and you will see that you don’t automatically qualify and it depends on how much you were earning when you were paying into social security so you must not have had a good paying job!
I only get $838 a month when illegals that never paid a single dime into SS get over $4000 a month why is this??
So we seniors get an average of what we paid in over the 40 quarters to qualify!!
So maybe if I had come across the border illegally I would qualify for the total amount of over $4000 plus. With free healthcare 😳
I just don’t get why when we turn say 62 and worked the 40 quarters we all don’t get max???
Instead we work our asses off and our benefits go to these illegals who never qualified ever. Please 🙏 make sense of this as I see lots of my older folks friends that can’t make if off of there benefits cause they only get the $800 or less like myself.???
I don’t understand these SS and retirement payments for the American people? It just seems they are made to help illegals and destroy the second class of American citizens.
Please Trump Take the benefits away from the non American citizens and give the retirement age Americans a better retirement plan!!
I know when my husband of 43 yrs passed away 3 yrs ago I was counting on getting his SSI along with my disability but instead I get what the call spousal survival which is ridiculous. It’s not even half of what I should receive and then along with my disability, which is also ridiculous. I’m barely survive. I got a three pantries every month and my children helped me out which they shouldn’t have to so why we were all these years in our lives. To not even get what we paid into but get given to someone that hasn’t is absolutely so sad!
I should be getting my husband Social Security with a little bit more Disability and not have to struggle to pay bills or even eat government oughta be ashamed
I only received 2119.50 SSI