For decades, the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) has been one of the few guarantees retirees could count on: every January, benefit checks rise to help keep pace with inflation.

But with the program’s trust fund now projected to run dry within just a few years, a new proposal from a leading fiscal policy group is raising the possibility that not every beneficiary will keep getting the same protection — and millions of higher-income retirees could see their future increases capped.

Here’s what’s actually being proposed, what it would mean for your check, and where things stand with the 2027 COLA that’s set to be announced this fall.