The Bottom Line

Social Security’s 2027 COLA is on track to be one of the largest in decades, and unusually, much of that size can be traced back to specific presidential policy decisions — tariffs and a military conflict that disrupted global oil supply — rather than routine economic cycles.

Current estimates point to a COLA in the 3.4% to 3.6% range, which would mark a sixth straight year of raises at or above 2.5% and, notably, the first year since 2023 that the increase in monthly benefits is projected to outpace the rise in Medicare Part B premiums.

Nothing is final until the Social Security Administration’s official October announcement, but for now, the numbers suggest 2027 could deliver retirees both a historically large raise and a rare moment where more of that raise actually reaches their pocket.

This article reflects Social Security and Medicare data and forecasts available as of August 2026. Official 2027 figures will be announced by the Social Security Administration in October 2026.