Are 2026 Tax Refunds Really Expected to Be the Largest Ever?

According to a House Ways and Means Committee press release, taxpayers could see an average refund increase of about $1,000 during the 2026 filing season—potentially making it a record-breaking year for IRS tax refunds.

The committee estimates the new tax law will result in $91 billion more in total refunds compared to the prior year. If projections hold, the average tax refund could rise to approximately $4,151, up from the IRS-reported average of $3,151 in the previous filing season.

These figures are based on an analysis conducted by Piper Sandler, a financial services firm, and later discussed publicly via a financial podcast. Similar to previous tax studies, the analysis suggests that middle- and upper-income households, especially those earning between $60,000 and $400,000 annually, are expected to receive the greatest benefit from the new tax provisions.

While these estimates are encouraging, it’s important to remember that averages are not guarantees. Some taxpayers will see significantly larger refunds, others may see only modest changes, and some could even face higher tax bills.